The three main partners of the two rival alliances, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the Mahayuti, continue almost till the 5 pm cut-off – and judging by the number of rebel candidates – even beyond.
There will likely be some changes till November 4, the deadline for withdrawal of nominations, as the three large parties in each alliance fine-tune their seat-sharing arrangements or accommodate smaller allies.
In the MVA, the Congress is now contesting 101 seats, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), 96, and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), 87. Four seats are yet to be decided, while in six seats —Miraj, Sangola, Pandharpur, Paranda, Dharavi and Digras – two or more of the constituent parties have named candidates.
In the ruling Mahayuti, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will contest 152 seats, the Shiv Sena 80, and the NCP 51. Five seats are yet to be decided; in some seats, two or more constituent parties have named candidates.
After the elections for the Lok Sabha and Haryana Assembly, the BJP and the Congress face a big test in Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, which goes to polls on November 20, the BJP alliance, Mahayuti, faces an anti-incumbency very similar to what the saffron party faced in Haryana.
In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP alliance won 17 seats while the INDIA bloc had 30 in Maharashtra. However, in terms of the vote share, both the Mahayuti and the MVA were around 43%. In Haryana, the BJP and the Congress won five seats each.
The BJP had a far tougher task at hand in Maharashtra than it did in Haryana. “The BJP will have to increase its vote share by 10% in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions for the Mahayuti to emerge victorious,” he said.
The political landscape in Maharashtra has undergone a sea change since the last Assembly polls in 2019. The two main Maharashtra-based parties — the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) — have seen a split. The Shiv Sena and NCP factions are constituents of the government coalition and are also present in the Opposition alliance, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
The Congress has allied with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and they are part of the INDIA bloc. The BJP is going to the polls with the Eknath Shinde-led Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP.
While issues like the Maratha agitations, the OBC reservation demands, and discontent among soybean and sugarcane farmers may challenge the Mahayuti, the BJP’s stunning victory in Haryana, securing a record third consecutive term, offers a significant boost.
These are the three reasons why the BJP-led alliance has an edge and can pull off a stunner in Maharashtra too. The split between the Shiv Sena and the NCP has led to complicated seat-sharing negotiations and power tussles.
For example, the Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut has demanded the announcement of a CM face before the election, which could create divisions within the alliance. However, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has been tight-lipped, saying, “Let Mahayuti announce their CM face first then we will let you all know who is our CM face”. He tossed the ball in Mahayuti’s court.
Congress has lost its negotiating muscle with its failure in Haryana. Its bargaining position with its allies in Maharashtra has been reduced. This internal strife and lack of cohesion within the MVA could hinder their ability to present a unified front against the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. According to sources, the MVA has not reached a consensus as Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena are at an impasse over seat-sharing. Although the BJP-led Mahayuti has not chosen a CM face either, Eknath Shinde is widely being considered as the chosen one.
With a month before the polls on November 20, Shinde is leaving no stone unturned to attract voters. In a series of announcements, the Eknath Shinde-led Cabinet has reportedly taken more than 150 decisions in the last four meetings.
In Haryana, the BJP successfully countered the Congress’s narrative and freebies with its own targeted schemes.
This approach can be replicated in Maharashtra, where the BJP-led Mahayuti can focus on highlighting the achievements of the Eknath Shinde government and the benefits of its schemes.
In September, the Shinde government launched a campaign to create awareness about 10 schemes of his Mahayuti government. The schemes were aimed at the youth, women, farmers, and the elderly. Under the ‘Ladki Bahin Kutumb Bhet Abhiyaan’, the Shinde Sena aimed to reach out to more than one crore of families in the state. The Ladli Behen scheme is being seen as an effective tool in this regard.
The Mahayuti government, on Tuesday, announced the Diwali Bonus under the Ladli Behen. The scheme, which tasted success in Madhya Pradesh under Shivraj Singh Chouhan, covers 93,000 family beneficiaries in the state. This could have some appeal among the women voters.
The Maharashtra government on Monday announced a complete toll waiver for light motor vehicles at all five toll booths in Mumbai. This is seen as a big sop for Mumbai voters.
The narrative of “Samvidhan Khatre Me” didn’t find takers in the Haryana polls. In Haryana, while the Congress looked at a Jat vote consolidation, the BJP benefited from a counter-consolidation of non-Jat voters, who were wooed by the various targeted schemes of the Nayab Singh Saini government. While in the Lok Sabha election, the Congress pitched for a pan-India caste census, the reservation in the proportion of the population freaked out Jat voters. The Congress harvested the results of mixed messaging.
The ruling coalition has its campaign pitch clear, while the Opposition MVA will be looking for a narrative to target the NDA. The pressure is building as time is running out with voting in Maharashtra set for November 20.
For now, the law and order situation in the state, highlighted by the murder of NCP leader Baba Siddique, is the only issue that the Opposition is using to attack the government.
Though the Mahayuti seems ahead on these three factors, multiple complex issues might come between the cup and the lip.
