After 15 years of Sheikh Hasina being in charge, India is now facing the prospect of resetting its ties with Bangladesh as recent anti-government protests forced the 76-year-old leader’s ouster and staged the possible return of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), which had a troubled relationship with the Indian government.
The swearing-in of Bangladesh’s interim government will take place at 8:00 pm (Indian time) today with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a fierce Hasina critic, taking the helm. India is now grappling with the possibility that China and Pakistan, India’s top foes, may try to exert influence in Bangladesh. Jamaat-e-Islami, the main Islamic party in Bangladesh, already has strong links to Pakistan.
These concerns swelled as Bangladesh’s former PM Khaleda Zia, the BNP leader who was not fond of links with India, was freed from house arrest after she was imprisoned in 2018 by her arch-rival Hasina on corruption charges. The changing dynamics in the neighbourhood and the South Asian region as a whole could have drastic implications for India’s foreign policy and it may face another neighbour harbouring hostile elements.
Similarities between Pakistan and Bangladesh
- Military rule (and coups)
It is widely known that Pakistan and Bangladesh both have powerful militaries that dominate the political administration and make decisions of their own that overrule those made by parliamentary authorities if they feel anything going against their interests. As a result, both countries have spent several decades under military rule with previous rulers facing convictions and sentences. Pakistan has experienced at least four military coups and several unsuccessful attempts, while the all-powerful Army is widely known to have indirectly appointed and toppled governments.
Similarly, Bangladesh has seen at least 29 military coups in a troubled history marked by chaotic upheavals and shifting power dynamics. The first coup started with the assassination of Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family in 1975. Coming to present, reports have emerged that the Army refused to intervene in the recent protests that ousted Hasina.
- Assassination attempts
Amid political turbulence in both neighbouring countries, Pakistan and Bangladesh have witnessed several assassinations and killing attempts against high-profile leaders. Pakistan’s first PM Liaquat Ali Khan was killed in a political rally in Rawalpindi in 1951, while military ruler Zia ul Haq was killed in an aircraft crash under mysterious circumstances. The assassination of ex-PM Benazir Bhutto in 2007 shocked the nation. Similarly in Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was killed in 1975 and his successor Ziaur Rahman was killed during a military coup in 1988. Sheikh Hasina has survived at least 19 assassination attempts.
- Chaotic departures of PMs
Under the tough situation created in political upheavals and military rule, leaders often end up fleeing the country to escape persecution or assassination. This is also quite similar to the case of Pakistan and Bangladesh. Nawaz Sharif, the deposed ex-PM of Pakistan, is one of the many leaders who lived in political exile for four years after he was arrested and convicted on corruption charges. Interestingly, his deposer Pervez Musharraf also fled to London in a self-imposed exile to avoid impeachment in 2008. Sheikh Hasina, who lived for several years in exile after her father’s assassination in 1975, was forced to flee as hundreds of protesters converged at her residence on August 5.
- Threat of Islamic extremism
The return of the BNP has fuelled India’s concerns over a rise in terrorist activities as the Khaleda Zia-led party is allied with Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, a pro-Pakistan Islamic party with ties with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). There are already concerns that ISI funded the recent protests that led to Hasina’s ouster. The protests also saw a rise of attacks on Hindu minorities, which was common when the BNP was at the helm.
Pakistan also has several radically Islamist parties that have organised several attacks on the state as well as the minorities. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is one of the major problems for the country as it oversaw numerous terror attacks, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, that have killed hundreds. The Jamaat-e-Islami in Pakistan and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam are also some of the known conservative parties that advocate radical policies and have targeted minorities through Pakistan’s controversial blasphemy law.
Why BNP’s rise is a concern for India?
The last time the BNP was in power, India faced multiple challenges related to cross-border terrorism. When Zia was in power, Bangladesh tilted towards Pakistan and promoted terrorism in India’s northeastern areas. The terrorist groups operated on Bangladeshi soil and were rumoured to be funded by the ISI.
India faced challenges related to cross-border terrorism and repeatedly expressed concern over the activities of Islamist terrorist groups operating from Bangladesh during this time, all falling to deaf ears. Anti-India activities and attacks on the Hindu community also grew significantly. This stopped when Hasina returned to power, clamping down on terrorism, distancing from Pakistan and dealing with India’s interests in a sensitive manner. Hindus in the country have also supported the Awami League.
Now with the BNP marking a possible return, India’s robust defence and trade ties with Bangladesh under Hasina may be threatened by China and Pakistan. Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed Joy said Bangladesh could descend into chaos again and become like Pakistan after the recent events. The interim government has also included Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP in their ranks, raising the possibility of a rise in terrorist activities and the prospect of two Pakistans around India, threatening its strategic power in the region.
